Sources
Files in this directory, with original URLs. Digest files (*-digest.txt) are short text reconstructions for sources whose servers blocked direct download.
Seed
bcg-scenarios-digest.txt— BCG Henderson Institute, Beyond Tomorrow: Four Scenarios for the World of 2050 (Apr 2026). Original: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2026/beyond-tomorrow-four-scenarios-for-the-world-of-2050 · PDF: https://web-assets.bcg.com/20/b1/521bbd2d431fba3b32dac5af5d64/bcg-scenarios-2050-apr-2026-web.pdfprnewswire-bcg-summary.html— BCG press release mirror. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-global-economy-could-split-in-very-different-directions-by-2050-302746672.htmlsatradedesk-bcg.html— most complete BCG mirror. https://www.satradedesk.com/2026/04/20/the-global-economy-could-split-in-very-different-directions-by-2050/aijourn-bcg.html— AI Journal mirror. https://aijourn.com/the-global-economy-could-split-in-very-different-directions-by-2050/hellenic-bcg.html— Hellenic Shipping News mirror. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/the-global-economy-could-split-in-very-different-directions-by-2050/
Institutional scenarios
nic-global-trends-2040-digest.txt— US NIC, Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World (Mar 2021). https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdfwef-global-risks-2026-digest.txt— WEF, Global Risks Report 2026. https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2026/oecd-long-run-2025-digest.txt— OECD, Global Long-Run Economic Scenarios: 2025 Update. https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-outlook/long-run-economic-scenarios-2025-update.htmlmckinsey-growth-digest.txt— MGI, Can long-term global growth be saved? https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/can-long-term-global-growth-be-savediea-nze-digest.txt— IEA, Net Zero by 2050 / Net Zero Roadmap. https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050un-wpp-2024-summary.pdf— UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. https://population.un.org/wpp/
Climate scenarios
ipcc-ssp-wikipedia.html— IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways overview (Wikipedia). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathwayssmil-halfway-to-2050.pdf— Vaclav Smil, Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome (2024). Energy-transition skeptic case.
Tech-optimist / AI scenarios
ai-2027.html— Kokotajlo, Alexander, Larsen, Lifland, Dean, AI 2027 — month-by-month intelligence-explosion scenario. https://ai-2027.com/andreessen-techno-optimist.html— Marc Andreessen, The Techno-Optimist Manifesto (Oct 2023). https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/handmer-terraform-whitepaper.html— Casey Handmer, Terraform Industries Whitepaper 2.0 — 95% of human energy use downstream of solar PV by 2042. https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2023/01/09/terraform-industries-whitepaper-2-0/age-of-em-wikipedia.html— Robin Hanson, Age of Em (2016) — brain-emulation economy overview. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em
Heterodox / contrarian
zeihan-end-of-world.html— Peter Zeihan, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning — deglobalization + demographic collapse. https://zeihan.com/end-of-the-world/hickel-degrowth.html— Jason Hickel, degrowth canon. https://www.jasonhickel.org/blog/tag/degrowthord-precipice-revisited.html— Toby Ord, The Precipice Revisited — existential-risk framing. https://www.tobyord.com/writing/the-precipice-revisited
China 2049
Not downloaded as a single file; key references:
- ODI Global China 2049 Initiative: https://odi.org/en/about/our-work/global-china-2049-initiative/
- UBS, The road to 2049: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/insights-and-data/2023/china-long-term-growth.html