McKinsey Global Institute — long-term growth scenarios
Key article: "Can long-term global growth be saved?" (Feb 2015) and subsequent updates including "MGI 2025 in charts" (Dec 2025).
Original: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/can-long-term-global-growth-be-saved

CORE CLAIM: Without action, global growth nearly halves over 50 years.

DEMOGRAPHIC ANCHOR:
- Global employee count likely peaks ~2050.
- Employment growth: just 0.3%/yr next 50 years.
- Even if productivity matches its historical rate, global GDP growth falls 40% to ~2.1%/yr.

PRODUCTIVITY CHALLENGE:
- To fully offset demographic headwinds, productivity would need to grow 3.3%/yr — 80% faster than past half-century average.
- Sector studies (agriculture, autos, food processing, healthcare, retail) suggest scope for up to 4%/yr.

IMPLICATION: McKinsey's productivity-driven upside scenario delivers ~2050 GDP growth comparable to BCG's "AI Abundance" — but McKinsey gets there by sector-by-sector productivity unlocks, BCG gets there by AI. Both assume the worker-shortage problem gets solved through tech.

DIVERGENCE FROM ZEIHAN: Zeihan thinks demographics are destiny and tech can't compensate; McKinsey thinks productivity unlocks can fully offset the population peak.