Seed — BCG, Beyond Tomorrow
BCG Henderson Institute, April 2026. Built from “more than 100 megatrends and a century of historical data.” Lead voice: Alan Iny.
“Planning for a single future is a gamble. The advantage will go to leaders who prepare for multiple futures.”
Four scenarios
| Cooperation high | Cooperation low | |
|---|---|---|
| Tech & energy fast | AI Abundance | Digital Darwinism |
| Tech & energy slow | Climate Coalition | Battling Blocs |
(BCG doesn’t present this 2×2 explicitly; it’s the cleanest mapping of their drivers.)
1. AI Abundance
Global cooperation on AI standards. ~5%/yr GDP growth. GDP 3×+ today. Work hours ↓25% (2,100→1,600); 3–4 day week becomes common. Net-zero arrives late but credibly via AI-designed materials + carbon removal.
2. Battling Blocs
Decoupled, mutually distrustful alliances. Trade falls to 35% of GDP (from 57% in 2024, Cold War levels). GDP growth 1.8%/yr — the floor. Defense spending 7% of GDP — Cold War peak. Talent mobility compressed.
3. Climate Coalition
Late-2020s extreme-weather events catalyze cooperation. Warming stabilizes ~1.8°C. Fossil share of energy 81% → 35%. Carbon markets near-universal by 2040. GDP growth ~2.5%/yr.
4. Digital Darwinism
Rapid tech under thin regulation. GDP growth ~4%/yr. Wealth concentrates: top 1% holds ~50% of global wealth. Middle class continues shrinking. Defense spending rises to 4% of GDP.
Envelope across the four
- 2050 GDP: 1.6× to 3.4× today
- Low-carbon electricity share: 55%–90%
- Defense spending: 2.4% → 4% to 7% of global GDP
What BCG doesn’t model
- AI catastrophe / misalignment as a trajectory, not just a tail risk
- Sub-replacement fertility driving demographic collapse (Zeihan, OECD)
- Successful degrowth as a chosen path (Hickel)
- Conflict above Cold-War baseline; hot great-power war
- Energy abundance going further than NZE2050 (Handmer’s 95%-solar-by-2042)
- Existential-risk-dominated futures (Ord)
These omissions are the entry points for everything in voices.md.